Gradient Boosted Decision Tree (GBDT) is a widely-used machine learning algorithm that has been shown to achieve state-of-the-art results on many standard data science problems. We are interested in its application to multioutput problems when the output is highly multidimensional. Although there are highly effective GBDT implementations, their scalability to such problems is still unsatisfactory. In this paper, we propose novel methods aiming to accelerate the training process of GBDT in the multioutput scenario. The idea behind these methods lies in the approximate computation of a scoring function used to find the best split of decision trees. These methods are implemented in SketchBoost, which itself is integrated into our easily customizable Python-based GPU implementation of GBDT called Py-Boost. Our numerical study demonstrates that SketchBoost speeds up the training process of GBDT by up to over 40 times while achieving comparable or even better performance.

Gradient Boosted Decision Tree (GBDT) is a widely-used machine learning algorithm that has been shown to achieve state-of-the-art results on many standard data science problems. We are interested in its application to multioutput problems when the output is highly multidimensional. Although there are highly effective GBDT implementations, their scalability to such problems is still unsatisfactory. In this paper, we propose novel methods aiming to accelerate the training process of GBDT in the multioutput scenario. The idea behind these methods lies in the approximate computation of a scoring function used to find the best split of decision trees.

In the context of rail transit operations, real-time passenger flow prediction is essential; however, most models primarily focus on normal conditions, with limited research addressing incident situations. There are several intrinsic challenges associated with prediction during incidents, such as a lack of interpretability and data scarcity. To address these challenges, we propose a two-stage method that separates predictions under normal conditions and the causal effects of incidents. First, a normal prediction model is trained using data from normal situations. Next, the synthetic control method is employed to identify the causal effects of incidents, combined with placebo tests to determine significant levels of these effects. The significant effects are then utilized to train a causal effect prediction model, which can forecast the impact of incidents based on features of the incidents and passenger flows. During the prediction phase, the results from both the normal situation model and the causal effect prediction model are integrated to generate final passenger flow predictions during incidents. Our approach is validated using real-world data, demonstrating improved accuracy. Furthermore, the two-stage methodology enhances interpretability. By analyzing the causal effect prediction model, we can identify key influencing factors related to the effects of incidents and gain insights into their underlying mechanisms. Our work can assist subway system managers in estimating passenger flow affected by incidents and enable them to take proactive measures. Additionally, it can deepen researchers' understanding of the impact of incidents on subway passenger flows.

Gradient Boosted Decision Trees (GBDTs) are dominant machine learning algorithms for modeling discrete or tabular data. Unlike neural networks with millions of trainable parameters, GBDTs optimize loss function in an additive manner and have a single trainable parameter per leaf, which makes it easy to apply high-order optimization of the loss function. In this paper, we introduce high-order optimization for GBDTs based on numerical optimization theory which allows us to construct trees based on high-order derivatives of a given loss function. In the experiments, we show that high-order optimization has faster per-iteration convergence that leads to reduced running time. Our solution can be easily parallelized and run on GPUs with little overhead on the code. Finally, we discuss future potential improvements such as automatic differentiation of arbitrary loss function and combination of GBDTs with neural networks.

This article was published as a part of the Data Science Blogathon. Customer Churn prediction means knowing which customers are likely to leave or unsubscribe from your service. For many companies, this is an important prediction. This is because acquiring new customers often costs more than retaining existing ones. Once you've identified customers at risk of churn, you need to know exactly what marketing efforts you should make with each customer to maximize their likelihood of staying.

Gradient Boosting algorithms tackle one of the biggest problems in Machine Learning: bias. Decision Trees is a simple and flexible algorithm. An underfit Decision Tree has low depth, meaning it splits the dataset only a few of times in an attempt to separate the data. Because it doesn't separate the dataset into more and more distinct observations, it can't capture the true patterns in it. When it comes to tree-based algorithms Random Forests was revolutionary, because it used Bagging to reduce the overall variance of the model with an ensemble of random trees.

We address the problem of finding influential training samples for a particular case of tree ensemble-based models, e.g., Random Forest (RF) or Gradient Boosted Decision Trees (GBDT). A natural way of formalizing this problem is studying how the model's predictions change upon leave-one-out retraining, leaving out each individual training sample. Recent work has shown that, for parametric models, this analysis can be conducted in a computationally efficient way. We propose several ways of extending this framework to non-parametric GBDT ensembles under the assumption that tree structures remain fixed. Furthermore, we introduce a general scheme of obtaining further approximations to our method that balance the trade-off between performance and computational complexity. We evaluate our approaches on various experimental setups and use-case scenarios and demonstrate both the quality of our approach to finding influential training samples in comparison to the baselines and its computational efficiency.